To see the truth in this, let us examine all possible outcomes.
First, what will occur if we let ten guilty men go free?
It is established fact that the guilty are more likely to commit crime. Statistics, as I just looked up, show that the recidivism rate in the US is significantly increasing over time. Of prisoners released in 1994 (the most recent survey I could find quickly on the National Institute of Justice's website, which was conducted in 2003), there was a 68% chance of them being arrested again. Of those who had been in prison in 1994, 41% with a prior arrest were arrested again. The more arrests a prisoner had, the greater chance of them being arrested again. It appears that it is the number of arrests rather than convictions that factors into here, from a glance through the numerous DoJ studies on this website. (It is actually quite an interesting subject; I suggest a look into it. This is a great source!)
I would summarize, therefore, that there is a high chance of a guilty man committing another crime, though it may not be the same type of crime. Many men do stay in the same area of crime, but it is important to note that not all do. When this next crime is committed, it also appears that there is a good chance of the guilty man being arrested and convicted, according to statistics.
While I do not think anyone would say that it is a good thing for a crime to occur, I do not think that this scenario is nearly as bad as possible. For instance, it could be that the guilty men tend to learn from the first arrest and then do not get discovered on the second, leading to a lower statistic in following arrests. However, this is not the case.
Even if one is of the mindset that some do learn from mistakes and hide it - which no statistics or data show, mind you - one could only say that, at the maximum and absolute worst: 6-7 men commit crime and are arrested again, 4-5 are convicted of said second crime, and perhaps 1-2 commit a crime and get away with it. I say perhaps, since there is no data and one must use pure hypothetical thought to come up with such a number. This still leaves us with a good ratio, with the majority of the men either ending up in jail or changing to a life free of crime.
Next, let us look to the innocent person. If they are to be jailed, how will this affect their life?
Now, let us look at the scenario of one innocent man being jailed wrongly. Through studies, it has been shown that people who are put in jail, even if for crimes they have not committed, are more likely than the average citizen to then commit crime. Therefore, one is taking a person who would not normally commit crime and turning them into someone more likely to commit crimes. Additionally, they are more likely to get away with the crime, due to their mindset and circumstance. This is the 'I'm treated as a _, so I'll act as a _' idea in some senses, but also extends a bit. To look at the effect on the individual and kin and klan even more, however, we must keep in mind the black mark on the person's record of whatever crime it is. Further, in many cases, the innocent will have to go to jail. This is time in their life that is taken away from them and a part of their character that is forever changed. Others will never judge them the same. Therefore, the overall perception of them has changed and there is a high chance that the innocent who never before would have committed a crime will upon the end of their probation (or at some later point in life).
In looking at this, I feel that I should disclose that I leaned towards the guilty going free rather than the innocent going to jail. However, this was a leaning based upon a good deal of thought and research.
The overall, I believe, does go with my original feeling. However, this does greatly depend upon one's moral philosophy. The philosophical point of view each person has is what determines how we each makes decisions, so everyone must make their own individual decisions here. I do believe that, in the spirit of the system itself, the ten must go free to allow the innocent to go free rather than the innocent man being marked guilty.
No comments:
Post a Comment